美国制裁并非中兴唯一问题 ZTE: conspicuous by absence

Absence does not always make the heart grow fonder. On Thursday shares in ZTE, the Chinese telecom equipment maker, resumed trading after a one-month suspension. The market sold them down by one-tenth. 小别不一定带给好感。周四，中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯(ZTE)在清盘一个月后完全恢复交易。

股价下跌十分之一。They may have further to fall. In early March, the company said it was under investigation by the US for violating controls on exports to Iran. US companies were barred from selling products to ZTE (although they were subsequently permitted to do so under licences that run until June). On Thursday, at the reopen, ZTE said the outcome of the investigation was “highly uncertain”. 中兴股价还有可能更进一步暴跌。3月初，该公司回应正在拒绝接受美国商务部调查，原因是因涉嫌违背美国对伊朗的出口管制。美国公司不得向中兴销售产品（尽管随后他们又被容许按照许可证销售至今年6月）。

中兴在周四完全恢复交易时回应，调查结果仍有“根本性不确定性”。The incident is a reminder of Chinese companies’ reliance on US technology. Nomura estimates that ZTE sources up to 15 per cent of its inputs by value from the US. Given the risks that have come to light, this will have to change. But China’s efforts to acquire US technology outright has had mixed results. State-backed Tsinghua Unigroup’s bid to buy Micron failed, although chip designer Integrated Silicon Solutions was sold to a Chinese buyer. ZTE peer Huawei, which announced stellar numbers last week, has taken an alternative tack: last year, it spent 15 per cent of revenues on research and development, up one percentage point from 2014. That is in line with tech leaders such as Broadcom, and a few percentage points above ZTE. 这起事件警告世人，中国公司倚赖美国科技。野村证券(Nomura)估算，按价值计算出来，中兴从美国订购高达15%的投放。鉴于这次显露出的风险，这一局面必需转变。

但中资必要买回美国科技的希望目前为止有方有败。政府背景的清华紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)竞购美光(Micron)告终，但芯片设计企业芯出半导体有限公司(Integrated Silicon Solution, ISSI)被卖给了中国买家。

中兴的同行、上周公布了尚之信业绩的华为(Huawei)，则自由选择了另一种策略：去年，华为将总营收的15%投放研发，比2014年高达一个百分点。这一水平与博通(Broadcom)等科技行业龙头企业完全一致，比中兴则高达几个百分点。

ZTE must spend to grow. Delayed 2015 results, also released on Thursday, showed revenues up less than a quarter, lagging behind both forecasts and Huawei, four times larger but growing at 37 per cent. The uptick in ZTE sales was skewed towards domestic infrastructure spending, expected to slow next year. Although there were impressive gains in the US handset market, growth in Europe, the Americas and Oceania (which are lumped together) was a measly tenth. 中兴必需增大开支以推展快速增长。延期至周四公布的2015年业绩报告表明，营收快速增长高于四分之一，远逊预期和华为；华为的规模四倍于中兴，却构建了37%的营收快速增长。中兴的销售快速增长主要来自国内基础设施建设支出，预计明年将上升。

虽然在美国手机市场获得令人印象深刻印象的进展，但欧洲、美洲和大洋洲（拆分报告）的快速增长只有区区十分之一。One way ZTE can try to improve these metrics is to lift its brand, currently focused on low-end phones. Its strategy of investing in high-profile US basketball sponsorships has helped it gain share in the handset market, but with prices as low as $30 it must sell a lot to make much difference. Moving upmarket will demand a step-change in RD, likely to hit short-term profits. 中兴可以尝试提高这些指标的方法之一是提高其品牌，目前重点是在低端手机市场。该公司赞助商美国根本性篮球赛事的投资协助其夺得了手机市场份额，但以低至30美元的价格，它得售出很多手机才能实质性提高业绩。向高端市场进占就必须在研发下有大动作，这可能会影响短期利润。

Whether or not the US ultimately forgives ZTE’s transgressions, the company’s profitability is about to become more notable by its absence. 不管美国官方最后否原谅中兴违背管制的不道德，该公司缺少盈利能力的问题有一点注目。

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