FT分析 苹果能否征服印度市场

As the Gujarat Lions cruised to an easy win over the Kolkata Knight Riders, Tim Cook stood on the edge of the pitch expressing his newfound love for Indian cricket. “I’m totally hooked...it’s so exciting here,” Apples chief executive said, midway through his first visit to the country this month.就在古吉拉特雄师队(Gujarat Lions)精彩取得胜利加尔各答骑士队(Kolkata Knight Riders)时，蒂姆库克(Tim Cook)车站在球场边传达着自己对印度板球新的生根的热衷。“我几乎被吸引住了……这里过于令人兴奋了，”这位苹果(Apple)首席执行官5月在首次拜访印度时说。

Mr Cook’s cricket outing may have been in part a publicity stunt, but he has good reason to seek a better understanding of Indian culture. The country has become a conspicuous source of growth for Apple, which said iPhone sales there increased by 56 per cent in the first quarter of this year, even as they fell globally for the first time.库克的板球讫在或许上也许是宣传伎俩，但是他有很好的理由去尝试更佳地解读印度文化。印度早已沦为了苹果的一个引人注目快速增长来源——今年第一季度，就在iPhone全球销量首次同比上升之际，印度iPhone销量快速增长56%。

In fact, world smartphone sales as a whole suffered their first fall in the same period, according to research by Canalys, but India’s market again stood out, notching up an overall 12 per cent increase as millions of people made the switch from basic feature phones.事实上，据Canalys研究表明，同期全球智能手机整体销量经历了首次暴跌。但是，印度市场再度异军突起：随着数百万人从功能手机转而用于智能手机，印度智能手机总销量快速增长了12%。Mr Cook’s visit has put the spotlight on what is now “the most important country in the smartphone market”, according to a Morgan Stanley report last month, which predicted that by next year sales in India would be second only to China and boast a higher growth rate.库克此行让人们注目起印度。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)4月的报告称之为，如今印度是“智能手机市场里最重要的国家”。报告预测，明年印度智能手机销量将名列全球第二，次于中国，增长率还有望更高。But in some respects India is more challenging than any other big market on which Apple has set its sights.但是，在某些方面，印度比苹果目前为止看上的所有其他大型市场都更加富裕挑战性。

Competition is heating up, with a growing crowd of Chinese players including Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei taking on the established leaders — South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and entrenched local brands such as Micromax.竞争正在加剧。误解(Lenovo)、小米(Xiaomi)和华为(Huawei)等更加多的中国运动员一方面正在挑战韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics)老牌领军企业，另一方面还在挑战Micromax等根基深厚的印度本土品牌。

Per capita income of $1,617 last year, compared with China’s $7,990, means the iPhone is beyond the means of the vast majority of Indians. Analysts put its national market share at no more than 2 per cent.与中国7990美元的人均国民收入比起，印度去年人均国民收入仅有为1617美元，这意味著iPhone远超过了绝大多数印度人的价格忍受范围。分析师指出iPhone在印度占有的市场份额不多达2%。“People in rural towns are buying feature phones at Rs500-Rs1,500 ($7-$22),” says Navkendar Singh, an analyst at IDC, who estimates that smartphones still account for less than half of overall mobile phone sales in India despite the rapid growth. “We dont expect them to make a big jump and start spending a lot of money on telecoms.”“在农村生活的人们一般出售500至1500卢比（合7至22美元）的功能手机，”IDC分析师纳肯达尔辛格(Navkendar Singh)回应。他估算，尽管智能手机销量快速增长很快，但是在印度手机总销量中的占比仍严重不足一半。

“我们不指出他们不会经常出现进步式的变化，开始在通话设备上花大价钱。”About half of Apple’s handset sales in India in the first quarter of the year were of the almost four year old iPhone 5s, according to Counterpoint Research.Counterpoint Research回应，今年第一季度苹果在印度卖出的iPhone大约一半是面世已将近3年的iPhone 5s。Mr Cook’s recent meeting with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, gave him a chance to lobby for concessions that would strengthen Apple’s position in this race.库克最近与印度总理纳伦德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)的会面，为他获取了一次讨要礼遇的机会，这不会让苹果在这场竞赛中取得更加不利的方位。

The company had been seeking to broaden its appeal to cost-conscious consumers by selling used phones — but the Indian government ruled against that plan this month, after complaints that it would cannibalise domestic phone manufacturing.该公司此前仍然企图通过出售二手手机来不断扩大自己对侧重价格的消费者的吸引力，但是，有人责怪称之为这将伤害印度本土手机制造业，印度政府5月裁决该计划不得实施。Anshul Gupta, an analyst at Gartner, says Apple’s eagerness to distribute low-cost iPhones is logical even if it could weigh on margins in the short term. “What matters is the installed base [using Apple’s operating system]...some of those will later be upgrading to the high end,” he says.Gartner分析师安舒尔古普塔(Anshul Gupta)称之为，苹果渴求销售低价iPhone是合乎逻辑的，即使这在短期内使利润率承压。

“最重要的是（用于苹果操作系统的）用户基数……其中一些随后将升级出售更加高端产品，”他称之为。More than 90 per cent of phone users in India use prepaid SIM cards instead of long-term contracts, which prevents operators from offering the kind of subsidies that have boosted sales of higher-cost handsets elsewhere.印度逾90%的手机用户都用于预付费SIM卡、而不签定长年合约，这使得运营商无法获取那种在其他地区提振了高价手机销量的补贴。But Mr Cook argues that opportunities offered by fast 4G networks will boost iPhone sales. Market leader Bharti Airtel launched the first national 4G network last August, which should be followed this year by Reliance Jio, a $16bn telecoms project from Reliance Industries, India’s second-biggest listed company.但是，库克指出，较慢的4G网络带给的机遇将提振iPhone销量。

去年8月，印度市场领军企业巴蒂电信(Bharti Airtel)发售了印度首个4G网络，第二个4G网络应当不会在今年由Reliance Jio发售——Reliance Jio是印度第二大上市公司信实工业(Reliance Industries)价值160亿美元的电信项目。“Knowing Reliance, I won’t be surprised if they pick up a few hundred thousand iPhones and subsidise them for the marketing impact,” says Jayant Kolla, co-founder of Convergence Catalyst, a telecoms consultancy.“以我对信实的理解，如果他们为了营销效果而应从几十万部iPhone并为其获取补贴，我会深感车祸，”电信咨询公司Convergence Catalyst的联合创始人贾扬特科拉(Jayanth Kolla)称之为。Apple’s recent growth in India has come largely at the expense of Samsung. According to CyberMedia Research, Apple’s share of sales in the premium smartphone segment — with prices above Rs30,000 — rose to 44 per cent last year, only 2 percentage points behind the South Korean group.苹果近来在印度市场的快速增长，主要伤害的是三星的利益。

CyberMedia Research数据表明，去年苹果在高端智能手机（售价低于3万卢比）品类的市场份额超过44%，仅有比三星较少2个百分点。But Samsung remains the clear leader in India’s overall market, having stemmed sharp falls in market share with its successful Galaxy J range. With features seemingly aimed at Indian consumers — including a special mode for motorbike users that attracted interest in the world’s biggest two-wheeler market — that series also brought improved design at a lower cost than previous models.但是，就整个印度市场而言，三星仍是没什么争议的领导者，Galaxy J系列的顺利让该公司多亏了市场份额大幅度下降的局面。该系列有一些看起来专为印度消费者设计的功能（还有一个专为摩托车司机设计的尤其型号，目的更有这个世界第二大两轮车市场的兴趣），改良了设计，并且价格比老款更加较低。Samsung has refused to be part of the widespread discounting of smartphones on ecommerce sites such as Flipkart. “Samsung is one of the few that has preserved price discipline,” Mr Singh says.三星仍然拒绝接受参予Flipkart等电商平台上风行的智能手机折扣广告宣传。

“三星是固守价格纪律的少数厂商之一，”辛格说道。In contrast, Chinese smartphone makers such as Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei piggybacked on the distribution infrastructure of ecommerce sites as a low-risk way to enter the Indian market. Xiaomi, for example, targeted India for one of its first forays beyond China, and has launched its phones in the country through a series of promotional events with Flipkart — after each of which the companies have announced that the early stock was sold out in less than 15 seconds.相比之下，误解、小米和华为等中国智能手机厂商则利用了电商网站的销售平台，作为一条转入印度市场的较低风险渠道。

例如，小米把印度作为海外布局的选用地之一，通过Flipkart上的一系列推展活动，在印度市场发售自己的手机。每一次推展活动都是开始将近15秒钟，厂商就宣告先期库存已销售一空。Now entrenched as big players — their market share doubled in the year to March to reach nearly one-quarter, says IDC — the Chinese groups are seeking to cement their position by investing in a physical presence, including heavy branding in third-party retail stores.尽管这些中国厂商如今早已享有举足轻重的市场地位（IDC回应，在截至今年3月的一年里，中国厂商在印度的市场份额减少了一倍、至近四分之一），但它们仍谋求通过投资于实体业务（比如在第三方零售店展开大规模品牌推展）来稳固自己的地位。

The surge of Chinese imports is putting to the test India’s hopes of developing globally competitive smartphone brands, which still account for about four in 10 phones sold.印度期望打造出在国际上有竞争力的智能手机品牌，而来自中国的进口手机激增令其这一心愿受到考验。目前，印度本土智能手机品牌仍占印度智能手机总销量的四成。Local champion Micromax remained the second-biggest producer by volume in the first quarter with 17 per cent market share, according to Canalys, but that figure has been declining.Canalys数据表明，按销量计，印度本土智能手机领军企业Micromax今年一季度仍是第二大智能手机厂商，占17%的市场份额，但这个数字仍然在上升。Having lost its chief executive in March, Micromax is now bullishly targeting foreign expansion particularly in former Soviet countries. But it has not done enough to differentiate itself from other Android-based phonemakers, says Mr Kolla. He notes that it and other Indian companies such as Karbonn and Intex are still largely reliant on Chinese contractors and suppliers — even as they shift production to India in response to higher import duties and rising wages in China.Micromax原首席执行官今年3月辞职。

该公司如今于是以大力射击对外扩展，特别是在是向前苏联国家扩展。但科拉说道，该公司的希望还足以使它从众多安卓系统手机厂商中脱颖而出。

他认为，即便在Karbonn、Intex等印度厂商为应付进口关税增高和中国工资下跌，将生产基地搬到印度之际，这些厂商依然对中国合同商和供货商十分倚赖。Mr Kolla says the opportunity to profit from rapid smartphone adoption in India will not last for ever — for local brands or international competitors. “This growth won’t continue beyond 2018,” he warns. “The rest of the market is flat, and India will get there in a couple of years.”科拉说道，无论是对印度本土品牌还是对它们的国际竞争者而言，印度智能手机很快普及带给的盈利机会都会仍然不存在下去。“这种增长速度将会持续到2018年之后，”他警告称之为，“其他地区的市场已暂停快速增长，印度市场在几年后也将呈现这种状态。

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